Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 4.026680 4.390794 4.794162 5.278460 5.850053 6.510945 7.344673
2025-01-26 3.583932 4.068094 4.643588 5.393242 6.368474 7.632899 9.469730
2025-02-02 3.371046 3.937242 4.645746 5.628549 7.013706 9.002537 12.324254
2025-02-09 3.185295 3.800258 4.600448 5.767167 7.525421 10.291748 15.597559
2025-02-16 2.970438 3.595585 4.431281 5.693856 7.693682 11.075207 18.384931
2025-02-23 2.801792 3.433246 4.297101 5.643557 7.874790 11.916011 21.809110
2025-03-02 2.655119 3.286743 4.167715 5.577980 8.009898 12.703248 25.730031
2025-03-09 2.529489 3.158965 4.051937 5.515822 8.133984 13.503045 30.501038
2025-03-16 2.431975 3.063389 3.974133 5.503054 8.341721 14.554163 37.544548
2025-03-23 2.372382 3.017505 3.965840 5.602442 8.780011 16.327405 51.300188
2025-03-30 2.269423 2.901601 3.840457 5.485372 8.760211 16.921509 60.902727
2025-04-06 2.175145 2.793525 3.720031 5.364858 8.713202 17.433131 72.262728
2025-04-13 2.068138 2.663243 3.559635 5.163801 8.474385 17.338689 79.363967
2025-04-20 2.033510 2.640067 3.568650 5.271983 8.941859 19.704150 134.559300
2025-04-27 2.023866 2.653714 3.637336 5.498298 9.737820 23.857178 414.140532
2025-05-04 1.996823 2.638621 3.656762 5.631568 10.344666 27.962680 8718.629249
2025-05-11 1.936452 2.568322 3.578292 5.561093 10.404208 29.651109 NaN
2025-05-18 1.883899 2.508124 3.513651 5.512726 10.516715 31.796543 NaN
2025-05-25 1.832378 2.447471 3.444916 5.449650 10.577205 33.786699 NaN
2025-06-01 1.784547 2.390894 3.380372 5.389847 10.637809 35.938620 NaN
2025-06-08 1.746863 2.349200 3.339784 5.377560 10.841113 39.480849 NaN
2025-06-15 1.727277 2.335941 3.348665 5.473181 11.407248 47.228727 NaN
2025-06-22 1.678806 2.273742 3.266671 5.360544 11.274229 48.459632 NaN